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  • Climate Prediction

    • Brown Carbon Spheres in East Asian Outflow and Their Optical Properties

      • D. T. L. Alexander, P. A. Crozier, J. R. Anderson
        Original article citation: Science 321," 833 - 836, (2008).

      • Categories: Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Prediction
      • Recommended by the Editor: Anna Barnett on 08/08/2008 08:49AM GMT

        Here Duncan Alexander and colleagues analyze what's in the clouds of pollution drifting over the Yellow Sea from East Asia. A common type of carbon particle among the Asian aerosols turns out to be 'brown carbon', which has different optical properties from soot, or 'black carbon'. Atmospheric scientists have become interested in brown carbon recently, but most climate models don't include it. If it's a widespread pollutant, the models will need adjusting.
      • Comment on this subject: 0 comments made

    • Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution

      • Peter M. Cox, Phil P. Harris, Chris Huntingford, Richard A. Betts, Matthew Collins, Chris D. Jones, Tim E. Jupp, José A. Marengo, Carlos A. Nobre
        Original article citation: Nature 453," 212 - 215, (2008).

      • Categories: Anthropogenic change, Regional Climate, and Climate Prediction
      • Recommended by the Editor: Anna Barnett on 05/08/2008 04:17PM GMT

        Here's an example of irony unleashed when atmospheric aerosols are incorporated into climate models to improve their precision. Cox et al. find that adding in pollution particles makes for unusually accurate simulations of recent climatic conditions affecting the Amazon - and they use these simulations to predict that cleaner air in future will mean more frequent droughts for the rainforest. Quirin Sciermeier has more to say about this on the Climate Feedback blog: http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/
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    • Carbon-cycle feedbacks increase the likelihood of a warmer future

      • H. Damon Matthews, David W. Keith
        Original article citation: Geophys. Res. Lett. 34," (2007).

      • Categories: Climate Prediction, Policy, and Extreme Events
      • Recommended by the Editor: Olive Heffernan on 06/06/2007 09:21PM GMT

        In this paper published last month in GRL, Matthews and Keith use coupled climate-carbon models to assess the likely impacts of carbon-cycle feedbacks on future warming scenarios. By incorporating carbon-cycle feedbacks into the models, they show that feedback mechanisms can lead to dramatic increases in extreme warming probabilities. For example, for CO2 stabilization at 550 ppm, the probability of exceeding 2°C warming by end of century increases by a factor of between 1.7 and 3 when feedbacks are included. The authors suggest that the effects of positive carbon-cycle feedbacks on the likelihood of extreme future warming should be accounted for in climate policy-related decision making
      • Comment on this subject: 0 comments made

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